ByMarron Joshua F. Mendoza
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION in the second quarter is estimated to have declined year on year following the onset of El Niño and the rise in farm input costs like fuel and fertilizer due to the Persian Gulf War.
Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said delayed distribution of government assistance to farmers, and lack of technical advice and extension services could also impact the industry’s performance during the quarter.
He added that fisheries and livestock may not post growth in the second quarter, with crop and poultry output posting minimal gains.
“With a very strong El Niño coupled with the high fuel and fertilizer costs and delayed government assistance, the second half will be not be better compared to last year. There is a perfect storm happening affecting agriculture in general,” Mr. Dar told BusinessWorld via Viber.
Mr. Dar said that despite the agriculture’s small share of gross domestic product and significant influence on food prices, agriculture remains closely watched because of its impact on prices.
He added that food inflation during the period is thought to be “one of the major contributors to overall inflation.”
Mr. Dar added that reluctance to plant could be a factor as farmers respond to the prospect of El Niño and high fuel and fertilizer costs.
“Chances are that some farmers are not planting due to the above factors. The farming sector will be economically affected with lower incomes,” Mr. Dar said.
“If there is lower rice production this coming season then the government will need to double its efforts in terms of extending assistance and building the resilience of the farming sector,” he added.
Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, does not expect agriculture output in the second quarter to surpass the year-earlier level, mainly due to the impact of the energy crisis, which has weighed heavily on the industry’s mechanized processes like tilling, irrigation, and logistics.
“We had a relatively good second quarter output (GVA) last year compared to 2025, boosted mostly by the crop subsector. For this year’s second quarter, I don’t expect output to surpass 2025 levels, and it might actually be lower mainly due to the effects of the oil crisis,” Mr. Montemayor told BusinessWorld via Viber.
Citing the Philippine Statistics Authority, Mr. Montemayor noted that palay (unmilled rice) and corn production for the second quarter rose year on year, but declined compared to the first quarter.
Mr. Montemayor said the impact of high fertilizer prices and El Niño will manifest more strongly later in the year.
Arnel V. De Mesa, Department of Agriculture (DA) spokesman and assistant secretary for Special Concerns and Official Development Assistance, has said that one reason for optimism about the second quarter is strong palay prices, which was encouraging to farmers.
“We are expecting production to be okay because a large portion of the sector’s output is in rice,” Mr. De Mesa said.
Mr. De Mesa also cited a possible increase in exports later in the year due to ongoing trade negotiations with Japan, the European Union, and Canada.
Once the trade deals are concluded, “it will contribute to the increase in our production of high-value commercial crops because exports fetch high prices,” Mr. De Mesa said.
Mr. De Mesa said that the DA is directing its regional offices to explore ways to maximize yields in areas not expected to be hit by El Niño. He also called for improved water management to mitigate the impact of the dry spell.
