Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna will be 45 by the time Kenyans vote during next year’s General Election. Should he choose to run in the country’s August 2027 presidential election, he is likely to be the second-youngest candidate to mount a challenge for the highest office in the land.
Former president Uhuru Kenyatta, who lost on his first attempt in 2002, currently holds the record for being the youngest presidential candidate of a major party. Mr Kenyatta, a newcomer anointed by outgoing president Daniel arap Moi as his successor, garnered 31 per cent of the votes to come second behind Mwai Kibaki in that election.
The latest opinion polls show the first-term senator gaining popularity, putting him in the running to be the major opposition alliance’s candidate to face President William Ruto in 2027.
He has yet to formally declare his presidential bid or announce the name of his new party following his fallout with the ODM, which resulted in his dismissal as secretary-general last month.
However, his Linda Mwananchi movement, which was originally an ODM faction opposed to the party’s support for President William Ruto’s so-called Broad-Based Government, has gained traction, particularly among young people disillusioned with the country’s corrupt political elite.
The 2002 and 2027 elections are somewhat historically similar, as they were both held against the backdrop of intense agitation for change in the country. The year 2002 marked a major political transition, with many Kenyans eager to end the 39-year rule of the Kanu independence party. Mr Kenyatta, seen as the establishment candidate, found himself on the wrong side of history as he suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of his Catholic church godfather, Kibaki.
But history seems to be kinder to Mr Sifuna if he decides to run.
Next year’s elections will be the first to be held in the era of the Gen Z movement. Emerging from the youth-led protests against tax hikes in 2024, the movement has since evolved into a political force pushing for governance reforms in the country. Backed by civil society groups focused on governance and human rights, and largely mobilising on social media, the movement has, in recent months, been encouraging young Kenyans to register to vote and vote for generational change next year.
The movement has characterised itself as ‘leaderless and tribeless’, disavowing allegiance to any of the country’s top politicians who have a strong following in their communities.
However, as political alliances begin to form ahead of the polls, Mr Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi has been actively courting the Gen Z movement, promising to put an end to an alleged state-sponsored campaign of abductions and killings targeting dissenting youths.
Mr Sifuna waves the national flag at all his public rallies, a symbol of civic defiance during the Gen Z protests. Last weekend, passionate crowds turned out for Linda Mwananchi’s county tours of Trans Nzoia and Bungoma in western Kenya, his home region, giving his political campaign a boost.
Key local leaders’ declaration that they will rally the region behind his prospective presidential candidacy could redraw the country’s electoral map and change how President Ruto and his opposition rivals approach their campaigns for the 2027 elections.
Without a credible presidential candidate from the area since Kijana Wamalwa in 1997, Western Kenya, the second largest voting bloc after Mt Kenya, has largely been a battleground for swing votes. Some political analysts have identified Bungoma County as a key swing region in the last presidential election, in which President Ruto defeated former prime minister Raila Odinga by a margin of around 200,000 votes.
If Sifuna were to become a presidential candidate, the region could become a safe voting bloc for the opposition, which would push back against President Ruto’s efforts and severely damage his chances of being re-elected.
The combination of his rise in the opinion polls and his stronghold in the west could determine the success of the opposition alliance being formed against President Ruto. Key leaders in the alliance include former deputy presidents Kalonzo Musyoka and Rigathi Gachagua, as well as the former, powerful interior minister, Fred Matiang’i.
