Recent data indicates a low probability of meeting the 6-7% GDP growth target by 2028.
GDP growth slowed to 4.4% in 2025, down from 5.7% in 2024, marking a five‑year low. The slowdown followed a corruption scandal that dampened government spending, investment, and consumer demand. Excluding the pandemic, the expansion was the weakest since 2011.
The 2025 growth figure fell below the 5.5%–6.5% goal, making it the third consecutive year the target was missed.
Experts argue that sustained, well‑targeted interventions are essential to achieve the desired growth rate. Removing constraints, attracting private investment, raising productivity, and building resilience are key components of such an approach. Inclusive employment and income gains must also accompany any expansion.
Absent these improvements, the economy may instead align with a revised 5%–6% target by 2028, provided household consumption remains resilient and external conditions improve.
The debt‑to‑GDP ratio rose to 63.2% in 2025 and reached 65.2% in early 2026, surpassing the 2026 target. This level is the highest since 2005 and remains well above the planned 60%–63% range. As a result, meeting the debt‑reduction goal by 2028 appears unlikely.
Current trends are viewed as an early warning. Meeting growth and debt targets will be challenging, yet possible if investment, infrastructure spending, and macroeconomic stability are maintained.
The share of wage and salaried workers in the private sector is projected to stay below target, slipping to 50% in 2025.
The fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP by 2028 remains on track. The deficit narrowed to 5.6% in 2025 from 5.7% in 2024, indicating progress in fiscal consolidation.
The inflation target of 2.4%–4.0% by 2028 is likely to be met. Headline inflation fell to 1.7% in 2025, though it rose to 6.4% in June after an oil price surge.
Unemployment and underemployment rates are expected to reach 4%–5% and 10%–11% by 2028, respectively. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% in 2025.
The poverty incidence target of 8.8%–9% by 2028 is likely. The incidence stood at 15.5% in 2023 and is projected to decline to 10%–11% by 2027.
The gross national income per capita target of $5,882–$6,081 by 2028 has a medium likelihood. GNI per capita rose to $4,470 in 2024, up from $4,320 in 2023.
The economy was recently reclassified as upper‑middle income after GNI per capita reached $4,850 in 2025, just above the lower threshold for that category.
