Ottawa's decision to replace its outdated submarine fleet has been met with praise from many observers, but defence experts warn that Canada's sluggish procurement framework leaves the country facing a dangerous "capability gap."
Prime Minister Mark Carney has named Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) as the preferred provider for Canada to purchase up to 12 new diesel-electric Type 212CD submarines, with the first four boats expected to be delivered by 2034.
The Royal Canadian Navy will continue to use its obsolete, half-century-old Victoria-class submarines into the next decade, a move that defence experts say represents a risky gamble for Canada.
"I don't think there's any doubt that you're going to see a capability gap between the Victoria class and the follow-on submarines," said Macdonald-Laurier Institute Senior Fellow and former Defence Minister Policy Director Joe Varner.
Varner noted that only one of Canada's four remaining submarines is considered seaworthy, and that the country's tendency to foot-drag and be slow in its procurement process puts it at risk of facing a "rust-out" and having to rebuild capability.
While Varner acknowledged that a new fleet of subs is invaluable in protecting Canada's Arctic approaches, he expressed concern that the anticipated 2034 delivery date doesn't offer much help to Canada in the meantime.
"The perception of threats in this country is really concerning," Varner said.
"All of our NATO allies are talking about the Russians being in a position to fight another major conventional war by 2029 – that's three years away," he noted.
In the Pacific, the Chinese are rehearsing naval blockade drills around Taiwan and mapping underwater for submarine operations, while China's recent unannounced test of submarine-based ballistic missiles and renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf have raised concerns about the country's military capabilities.
"There's always the debate over nuclear versus conventional when it comes to operating in and around the Arctic," Varner said.
He noted that while nuclear boats are capable of operating under Arctic ice for an indefinite period of time, operations under the ice cap tend to be noisy and come with their own challenges.
"The advantage of these submarines is their stealth and ability to sneak up on an opponent submarine," Varner said.
"If you're a Chinese or Russian military planner, planning to operate submarines in the Arctic – I think that you're going to be very concerned if Canada has 12 Type 212CD submarines sitting there waiting for you."
