The United States and Turkey are set to strengthen their defense ties, with President Donald Trump attending the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Trump has made it clear that he's attending the summit for one reason: Erdoğan. "I'm going because of Erdoğan," Trump said, calling the Turkish leader "a friend" and "a respected leader." This marks a significant shift in the relationship between Washington and Turkey, which has been strained in recent years over issues such as Turkey's purchase of a Russian air defense system.
Despite ongoing disputes, Turkey has become increasingly important to NATO as the alliance confronts Russia, instability in the Middle East, and an increasingly contested Black Sea. Analysts and former officials say Turkey is crucial to the Trump administration's efforts to maintain security in the region.
Turkey's military strength, geographic position, and willingness to project power make it essential to maintaining the U.S. perimeter around Eurasia, according to former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey. Jeffrey argued that Trump's affinity for Erdoğan is genuine, but reflects more than personal chemistry.
NATO is returning to its fundamentals of collective defense after decades focused on counterterrorism, said Hudson Institute think tank senior fellow Can Kasapoğlu. This shift is placing renewed pressure on allies to bring significant military capability to the table, with nations that bring hard-power capability to NATO receiving VIP treatment.
Turkey fields NATO's second-largest military after the United States, controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles, and borders Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Its unique position and military capabilities make it difficult for NATO to sideline, analysts say.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria have only heightened Turkey's strategic value, analysts say. Jeffrey argued that Turkey "has been essential to Ukraine staying in the fight," citing Ankara's enforcement of the 1936 Montreux Convention and its provision of Bayraktar drones to Kyiv.
Not everyone is convinced that Turkey's growing strategic value should outweigh concerns about its foreign policy. Critics argue that Turkey has increasingly diverged from NATO allies under Erdoğan, pointing to its support for Hamas, possession of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system, and efforts to deepen ties with non-Western blocs.
The Trump administration's decision to move forward with a $700 million arms sale to Turkey was met with congressional pushback, largely from Democrats. The sale has been criticized for not adequately addressing concerns about Turkey's continued possession of the Russian-made S-400 system.
The proposed $700 million sale of F110 fighter engines is seen as a more manageable issue than restoring Turkey to the F-35 program, according to Jeffrey. He argued that operating the Russian-made S-400 alongside America's most advanced stealth fighter presents a technical problem because it could expose sensitive U.S. technology.
