Climate experts have warned that a strong El Niño developing alongside human-caused global warming is expected to intensify heat waves, droughts, storms, food insecurity, and economic losses worldwide, with vulnerable communities facing some of the most severe impacts.
During an online briefing, climate scientists and policy experts said the combination of climate change and El Niño is amplifying extreme weather events and increasing risks to public health, agriculture, livelihoods, and economies across regions already struggling with rising temperatures and climate-related disasters.
A climate physicist and research director said El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by the warming of tropical Pacific waters, but its effects are being amplified by rising global temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
The physicist explained that global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions has already reached 1.4 degrees Celsius, and El Niño could add up to 0.25 degrees Celsius at the global scale, further intensifying extreme weather events.
Attribution studies have shown that climate change is intensifying extreme weather events, including heat waves, wildfires, tropical cyclones, storms, and heavy rainfall.
Recent research found that a June heat wave in Western Europe was up to 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer because of climate change, while similar studies are underway for recent North American heat waves.
Caribbean geographer and water resources specialist said the effects of El Niño are already being felt through drought, water shortages, extreme heat, and disease outbreaks in the region.
She noted that 82% of Puerto Rico is already experiencing drought conditions, prompting water rationing in some communities, and temperatures in parts of the island have recently reached a heat index of up to 43 degrees Celsius.
Expert warns that drought and warmer temperatures could worsen outbreaks of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, while unusually warm seas are contributing to larger sargassum blooms that affect tourism, fisheries, and coastal livelihoods.
Rising ocean temperatures are increasing the likelihood and severity of extreme weather worldwide, with climate change being the primary driver of this trend.
Senior engagement specialist and chief meteorologist said the baseline temperature is like a plate, while climate change is the cake and El Niño is the frosting on top.
Many ocean basins are experiencing unusually warm temperatures made significantly more likely by human-caused climate change, increasing the potential for stronger tropical cyclones.
The growing health risks posed by extreme heat and humidity have more than doubled the number of humid heat days globally since the 1970s, with warmer nights reducing the body's ability to recover from daytime heat stress.
The economic consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent, with current climate trajectories projected to cut global gross domestic product in half later this century.
African countries are already losing between 2% and 5% of their GDP annually due to climate impacts, while spending up to 9% of their national budgets responding to climate-related disasters.
Climate-related heat stress has cost agricultural workers billions of working hours and is increasing risks to global food security through lower crop yields, migration, and supply chain disruptions.
The worsening impacts of climate change underscore the need for stronger mitigation and adaptation measures, warning that communities that contribute the least to global emissions are often among those facing the greatest climate-related risks.
Experts said that cutting emissions to net zero is the only scientific solution to halting climate change, and that communities must work together to address the growing climate crisis.
