The arrival of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on American soil marked his first visit in seven years, a carefully orchestrated event filled with both pomp and profound geopolitical weight. President Trump welcomed him with a display of military might – an honor guard, roaring fighter jets, and the full spectacle of a red-carpet arrival – setting the stage for crucial discussions on oil, artificial intelligence, and the delicate matter of nuclear capabilities.
However, beneath the surface of diplomatic formality, a curious undercurrent emerged: the world of prediction markets. Just weeks prior, Trump’s media company had announced plans to integrate these markets into Truth Social, fueling a renewed interest in outcome-based betting.
As the Crown Prince’s visit unfolded, prediction markets focused on a seemingly trivial detail – his attire at a black-tie event. Bettors on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were offered the chance to win seventeen times their initial stake if he appeared in a traditional black suit.
The Prince, aware of the wagers being placed on his appearance, addressed the phenomenon directly with a wry smile. “Before I came here, someone told me that there are betting sites where you can bet on me wearing a black suit, and if you bet on me, you could get almost 17x. Sorry, you lose the bet. Better luck next time,” he quipped, acknowledging his awareness of the prediction market activity.
His comment sent ripples through the betting communities, with both Polymarket and Kalshi acknowledging the Prince’s playful response. It highlighted a growing fascination with these markets, which have evolved significantly since their prominent role in previous presidential elections.
Beyond the suit, other bets circulated regarding the interactions between the two leaders – would there be a hug, a handshake, and what topics would dominate their conversation? The visit became a focal point not just for international diplomacy, but for a novel form of public engagement and speculation.
The irony wasn’t lost on observers that, on the very day of the Crown Prince’s arrival, Google announced Saudi Arabia would be restricting advertisements for offline gaming, a move reflecting local regulations. This juxtaposition underscored the complex and often contradictory forces at play during this high-stakes visit.
The backdrop to these events remained shadowed by past tensions. US intelligence agencies had previously assessed the Crown Prince’s likely involvement in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a conclusion that strained relations between the two nations for years. Despite this history, the visit proceeded, signaling a tentative attempt to navigate a complex and evolving relationship.
