The Canadian government is expected to make a major announcement regarding the future of the country's submarine fleet this week, with speculation building that it could happen as early as Monday.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to attend the NATO Summit in Turkey, but it is possible he could make a brief stop in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where Vice-Admiral Dan Charlebois, Commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, will be in attendance.
The government has been tight-lipped about the pending decision, but sources suggest that the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project has been narrowed down to two companies: Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and South Korea's Hanwha Ocean.
The two finalists have proposed vastly different submarine designs, with the German Type 212CD being exceptionally quiet and well-suited for anti-submarine warfare and intelligence-gathering missions, and the Korean KSS-III being larger, with greater range and endurance, and better suited for long-distance deployments.
Splitting the contract between the two companies could offer geopolitical benefits, allowing Canada to deepen strategic partnerships in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific, while avoiding the appearance of choosing one region over the other.
The Royal Canadian Navy has indicated it would be comfortable operating a mixed fleet, despite the obvious increase in costs associated with maintaining two training systems, two maintenance programs, and two separate supply chains.
Major industrial benefits for Canada will play a significant role in the final decision, with both companies proposing partnerships with Canadian firms and potential investments in the country.
The announcement is expected to shape the Royal Canadian Navy and Canada's defence posture for a generation, and whether it happens in Halifax on Monday or is saved for later, the decision will have significant implications for the country's military and economic future.
The decision will also raise questions about the potential economic benefits of splitting the contract, and whether Canadians will receive half the promised investment from each company.
