Wholesale price growth slowed to a four‑month low in June, reflecting lower global oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions. The trend tempered price pressures on key commodities.
Preliminary data indicated the general wholesale price index (GWPI) rose 2.3% year‑on‑year in June, down from 3% a year earlier and 2.5% in May. This marks the weakest pace since February’s 1.7%.
For the first half of the year, GWPI growth averaged 2.3%, below the 3.3% recorded in the same period last year. The slowdown signals reduced inflationary momentum.
The deceleration was driven mainly by reduced growth in mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, which rose 29.3% in June versus 36.2% in May. Growth in machinery and transport equipment also eased to 1.1% from 1.2%.
Larger annual declines were observed in crude materials, inedible except fuels, falling to 35.6% from 27.2%, and in chemicals including animal and vegetable oils and fats, which slipped to 4.4% from 3.1%. These declines further dragged the index.
Analysts linked the softer wholesale price growth to lower global oil prices and a cease‑fire agreement in the Middle East, which reduced geopolitical uncertainty. The combination helped ease upward pressure on commodity prices.
Anticipated weaker demand in the quarter also contributed to reduced price pressures, according to an economist. Lower demand amplified the impact of softer global inputs.
A chief economist noted that easing price pressures across key commodity groups kept upstream cost pressures manageable for businesses during the month. The environment remained relatively stable for producers.
Food prices continued to rise, with the food index increasing 4.6% in June from 4.3% in May. Beverages and tobacco grew 2.6% from 2.5%.
Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials posted a modest 0.3% rise, and miscellaneous manufactured articles grew 1.4%, both slightly higher than the previous month. These sectors contributed modestly to overall inflation.
In Luzon, wholesale price growth eased to 2.2% in June, the slowest since February’s 1.5%, down from 3.2% a year earlier and 2.4% in May. The region’s price trajectory mirrored the national slowdown.
The Visayas recorded a 3.8% year‑on‑year increase, down from 5.1% in May, marking its weakest pace since February. Regional dynamics reflected the broader national trend.
Mindanao saw bulk price growth rise to 1.9% in June from 1.1% a year earlier, but fell from 2.2% the month before, the slowest rate in 11 months. The region’s inflationary pressure remains modest.
Forecasts suggest GWPI growth may pick up in the second half of the year as second‑round effects and renewed government spending stimulate wholesale prices. Economic momentum could revive price increases.
Conversely, moderate wholesale inflation is expected for the remainder of the year, provided no major supply disruptions occur. Stability in upstream costs remains a key factor.
Ongoing monitoring of global commodity and energy markets, weather‑related supply risks, and exchange‑rate movements will be essential to maintain a stable inflation environment. These variables will shape future price dynamics.
