A recent nationwide poll indicates that Vice President Sara Duterte‑Carpio is the leading candidate for the 2028 presidential election, despite an ongoing impeachment trial and a sizable bloc of independent voters.
The survey, conducted from July 13 to 16 with 1,438 respondents aged 18 and older, found that 44.2% would vote for Duterte if a presidential election were held today.
Former Vice President Leni Robredo placed second with 23.8% support, while Senator Rafael “Raffy” Tulfo garnered 12.2%.
Other contenders received marginal backing: Senator Ana Hontiveros‑Baraquel 2.4%, Senator Paolo Aquino 2.0%, and several additional candidates each below 2%.
In a direct matchup, Duterte secured 53.5% of votes against Robredo’s 38.9%; the remaining respondents were undecided or declined to answer.
Support for Duterte is anchored in a distinct voter faction, with 28.9% identifying with the Duterte camp, 12.4% aligning with the opposition, 11% with the Marcos faction, and 45% describing themselves as independent.
Analysts note that the stability of Duterte’s numbers reflects the structured nature of her support base, cautioning against complacency as the race remains open.
Regarding the impeachment proceedings, 83.3% of participants consider the trial important, while 43.8% believe it is too early to determine a verdict, suggesting the outcome could influence voter preferences.
The vice‑presidential contest appears to be a two‑way race, with Tulfo at 18.3% and Christopher Go at 16.2%, followed by Robin Padilla at 13.5% and Marcoleta and Aquino each at 9.1%.
In the senatorial field, incumbents Robin Padilla and Alan Peter Cayetano lead with 43.9% and 43.4% respectively, trailed by Tulfo (38.2%), Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte (34.8%), Grace Poe (33.7%), Vicente Sotto (32.9%) and Loren Legarda (31%).
The poll also captured public sentiment on the impeachment trial, the upcoming State of the Nation Address, and the nation’s overall direction, with plans to release updates monthly while the trial proceeds.
