Uganda’s nomination of former diplomat Olara Otunnu may look like a late entry in the race to become the next UN Secretary-General. Yet the contest he has joined is being shaped by a procedure he helped create more than four decades ago.
In 1981, Peru’s Javier Pérez de Cuéllar emerged unexpectedly as the compromise choice after an informal balloting system, known as straw polls, helped break a deadlock. The system had been proposed by Otunnu, then Uganda’s 31-year-old permanent representative to the UN and President of the Security Council, to help members ‘encourage’ or ‘discourage’ candidates from staying in the race.
On Wednesday, the UN will turn to straw polls again, seeking to gauge, among the seven contenders, who is the favourite to replace Antonio Guterres as the 10th UN Secretary-General.
The Democratic Republic of Congo, current president of the Council, said on Tuesday it would lead the straw polls, which will include Otunnu even though he has not yet faced the UN General Assembly public hearing like the rest of the contenders.
In the race are Michelle Bachelet (Chile), María Fernanda Espinosa (Ecuador), Rafael Grossi (Argentina), Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica), Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana), Macky Sall (Senegal) and Otunnu (Uganda).
Apart from Otunnu, all other candidates have faced public town halls, fielded questions from UN member representatives and traversed the world campaigning.
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Some commentators have suggested it should be the turn of the Latin America and Caribbean region, and especially a woman candidate, to lead the UN. It is not law, however. In fact, the UN Security Council may still hold sway over how the race unfolds.
Back in 1981, when there were fewer UN members, Otunnu suggested informal balloting to ‘discourage’ weaker runners from continuing. At the time, a tight race was unfolding between Kurt Waldheim (Austria), the then incumbent Secretary-General, who was running for a third term, and Tanzania’s diplomat Salim Ahmed, then endorsed by African countries.
Salim would later become Secretary-General of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) for three terms before the OAU morphed into the African Union (AU).
The UN contest would define how future races would be determined, just as much as it may offer Otunnu a taste of his own rules.
In 1981, the Peruvian candidate won the race, profiting from the suspended contest between Ahmed and Waldheim. Straw polls allowed members of the UN Security Council to cast ballots outside formal meetings, and no official communication of the result would be announced. However, member states would leak the results to the public, circulating rumours that could pummel weak contenders.
Some reports show that China opposed the Austrian 16 times, Salim was opposed 15 times by the US, while Iranian candidate Sadruddin Aga Khan was opposed once by the Soviet Union, according toSecurity Council Reports, which analyses decisions of the UN Security Council and especially the five permanent members with veto powers: China, the US, the UK, France and Russia.
At the UN, the General Assembly appoints the Secretary-General on the recommendation of the Security Council. A debate has already arisen over whether Otunnu could skip a date with the General Assembly or work the programme backwards and meet them later. However, it seems an early nod at the Council is just as good.
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Normally, straw polls are coloured to distinguish votes by permanent members from those by non-permanent members of the 15-member Council. Members may also indicate if they have no comment on the candidate. “Clearly there is greater flexibility under the straw-ballot procedure. “And there is the possible advantage that permanent members may find it easier to resile from a ‘red’ straw ballot than from a formal veto cast in the Council chamber. On the other hand, it has made the process even more secret,” says a bulletin fromSecurity Council Reports.
Otunnu served as UN Under-Secretary-General and Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict (1998-2005).
He comes in after Burundi and Senegal had already fronted former Senegalese President Macky Sall.Sall stayed in the race despite failing to garner an African Union endorsement. However, he has promised that if he wins he will work with the continental bloc to make the UN more responsive.
