The latest poll from the University of California, Irvine has revealed a surprising twist in California's gubernatorial race, showing Republican Steve Hilton narrowly leading Democrat Xavier Becerra among likely voters in Orange County.
Orange County, the third-largest county in the state, has trended blue in recent years after once being reliably red. The survey, conducted June 9 to 12, found Hilton at 47 percent and Becerra at 44 percent, a three-point edge that falls within the poll's margin of error.
Hilton, the former Fox News host and political strategist, celebrated the poll results on social media, declaring, "We have moved ahead of Becerra in California's 3rd largest county. Millions of Californians are saying: Enough Is Enough! Let's Fix California!"
The poll also highlighted significant political shifts in Orange County over the past decade, with Democrat voter registration outpacing Republican and nearly a third of voters identifying as independents. In the poll, Hilton dominated among Republicans with 94 percent support, while Becerra held 82 percent of Democrats.
Independents favored Becerra 46 percent to 38 percent, a trend that mirrors the broader political landscape in the county. Among likely voters in the gubernatorial race, men back Hilton by 14 points, while women support Becerra by 8 points. The same pattern holds on the congressional ballot: men favor the Republican candidate, women the Democrat.
Poll director Jon Gould stated, "What this poll tells us is that Orange County residents are anxious. Anxious about the cost of a home, skeptical of leaders at every level of government, and not persuaded that either party has earned its trust." The candidates who find a way to speak to that shared urgency, and who can actually bring their supporters to the polls in November, will be in the strongest position to win one of the most genuinely competitive counties in the nation.
Hilton has focused his campaign on housing costs, bureaucracy, public safety, and broader dissatisfaction with the status quo in California. His efforts to court voters uneasy with Trump have included taking out full-page ads asking whether someone can be "anti-Trump but still vote for me." Despite this, other recent surveys have shown Becerra holding double-digit leads statewide.
The two candidates advanced from the June primary under California's top two system and will face off on November 3. As the election approaches, the results of this poll will undoubtedly be closely watched as a sign of the shifting political landscape in Orange County.
